2024 American Electorate Voter Poll

The 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll surveyed more than 9,000 Americans who voted in the 2024 election. It includes large national and swing state over samples of African American, Asian American and Pacific Islander, Latino, and Native American voters as well as a robust sample of white voters.

The findings from this poll deepen our overall understanding of why and how Americans voted–and what issues and policies they want elected officials to prioritize over the next four years.


Methodology

The 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll is a large-scale poll of Black, Latino, Asian American, Native American and White voters nationally (across all 50 states) as well as in key states that will determine the 2024 presidential election. On behalf of more than a dozen leading national civic organizations that work to engage diverse communities, the poll was implemented by data scientists and polling experts from Barreto-Segura Partners (BSP) Research, The African American Research Collaborative, and Harvard University. Overall, the election poll targets over 9,000 voters in the final days before the November 2024 election, offering exclusive information about the electorate including Presidential, Congressional and Senate vote choice, issue priorities, evaluations of both major parties and what issues motivated voter turnout. The overall poll has a margin of error of 1.01%.

The poll is implemented for all racial/ethnic groups nationwide, and includes robust samples of African American, Latino, AAPI and White voters within specific battleground states to provide reliable vote choice estimates both nationally and in the 7 presidential battleground states. States included are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In addition, because states such as California, Texas and Florida are home to such large populations of minority voters, the poll provides additional data in these three states.

Respondents are selected from the voter file, and confirmed to be registered to vote. They are randomly contacted for an interview by telephone live-caller, SMS text message, email or online panel. The survey is available in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Tagalog, or Vietnamese, at the discretion of the respondent. The poll was in the field during early voting for both vote-by-mail and early in-person voting, and continued through the evening of November 4th. Voters were confirmed to have already voted early, or in the final days, were 100% certain they were voting on Election Day. Weights are employed to balance the sample for demographic characteristics, with allowance for differential turnout rates, based on historic turnout data and current turnout models.

Margins of error:

  • Overall national profile +/- 1.01%
  • African American +/- 2.3%
  • Latina/o +/- 1.62%
  • White, non-Hispanic +/- 2.5%
  • Asian American +/- 2.3%
  • Native American +/- 4.4%

Our voter poll uses an approach now also embraced by the national media exit polls of starting interviews with early voters before the election, and then also sampling election day voters. Our team pioneered this methodology in 2010 and demonstrated its accuracy through post-election voter file validation. This allows a statewide randomized representative sample and avoids the errors of cluster-sampling specific precincts in election day precinct exit polls. Our poll still offers a considerable advantage over national exit polls in that each racial group is weighted to match demographics for their specific group within each state. The national exit polls only provide state level, or national weights, and do not apply weights to racial groups. This has led to a socioeconomic bias in Black and Latino samples.